March 22, 2010
History lesson
Last night was historic. But not, perhaps, in the way the Democrats would like to believe. Hillsdale College history professor Paul Rahe offers some useful context:
Back in 1946, an ingenious advertising executive named Karl Frost suggested a simple, straightforward political slogan to the Massachusetts Republican Committee: "Had Enough? Vote Republican," it read. This slogan was soon found on billboards all across the country, and in November of that year the Republicans picked up fifty-five seats in the House and twelve in the Senate, seizing control in both chambers.By that November, the country had suffered under the New Deal for fourteen years, and Americans, understandably, were fed up. Moreover, as Michael Barone pointed out last May, "After World War II Democrats wanted to retain wartime high taxes, pro-union labor laws, and wage and price controls, all manipulatable for political benefit by political insiders. Republicans ... won big enough majorities to lower taxes, revise labor laws and abolish controls."
Were I in the shoes of Michael Steele, I would buy up billboard space all over the country and slap up the same slogan - for something similar should be possible this November. The healthcare debate was over some time ago. When Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in January, it was made abundantly clear that Barack Obama and the Democratic Party had lost that debate decisively. Now, in the face of fierce public opposition, they have jammed the bill through Congress, and they have done so without the cover of a single Republican vote. For this - as William Daley, the mastermind of the Chicago machine, warned in an op-ed that appeared in The Washington Post on Christmas eve - they will pay dearly and not just this coming November.
Abraham Lincoln once observed, "Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it nothing can succeed." It is possible, of course, that events will intervene between now and November. It is conceivable that the healthcare bill and the manner in which it was passed in both the Senate and the House will be forgotten. But this is not likely. If the Republicans stick together, mount a principled opposition to the Obama administration on all fronts, and recruit first-rate candidates to run in every district at both the state and the federal levels in November, it is highly likely that there will be a political earthquake in this country on a scale not seen since 1932.
As I have argued now for months - first, in August, here; then, in November, here and here; and, more recently, here, here, and here - a genuine political realignment may be in the offing. This has happened at irregular intervals in our nation's past – most notably, in 1800, 1828, 1860, and 1932 – and on each occasion the political party benefiting from the upheaval was able to paint a plausible picture depicting their opponents as being parties to a conspiracy to overthrow the liberties possessed by their fellow Americans. This is what Thomas Jefferson did to the Federalists in and after 1800; it was what Andrew Jackson did to John Quincy Adams, Henry Clay, Nicholas Biddle, and the Whigs in and after 1828; it was what Abraham Lincoln and the Republicans did to the slave power conspiracy and its fellow travelers in the North in and after 1860, and it was what Franklin Delano Roosevelt did to Herbert Hoover and the business-minded progressives in and after 1932. When FDR claimed, at the 1936 Democratic convention, that "a small group" of his fellow Americans was intent on concentrating "into their own hands an almost complete control over other people's property, other people's money, other people's labor – other people's lives," he was merely rephrasing the charges lodged in an earlier time by Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, and their political allies.
Of course, one cannot plausibly advance such a claim except in circumstances where one has a great deal of help from one's opponents. In 1800, Jefferson profited from the quarrel pitting Alexander Hamilton against John Adams, and by exhibiting secessionist propensities at the Hartford Convention, the New England Federalists destroyed their own party. Something similar can be said regarding Nicholas Biddle and the supporters of the Second National Bank. The same is true for the supporters of the slave power in and after 1860, and Herbert Hoover was in similar fashion a godsend for FDR.
If the Republicans have a comparable opportunity in 2010 and 2012, it is because of what I described in my very first blogpost as "Obama's Tyrannical Ambition." Barack Obama has a gift. He has told us so himself, and he is right, but he errs in supposing that his oratorical skill will enable him to fool all of the people all of the time, and over time he has, in effect, unmasked his own party as a conspiracy on the part of a would-be aristocracy of do-gooders hostile to very idea of self-government in the United States. There is no need for me to review the record of the Obama administration and the Democratic Congress in the last fifteen months. It is enough to say that, in an administration that promised transparency, everything has been negotiated behind closed doors in a manner suggestive of tyranny and that, in an administration that promised to distance itself from the lobbyists, every major bill has been written by them and is loaded with special deals that give new meaning to the old phrase "corrupt bargain." The stimulus bill, cap-and-trade, healthcare reform: with these Barack Obama, Rahm Emanuel, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid have brought home to the American people, as never before, the tyrannical propensities inherent in the progressive impulse.
There's more, with special emphasis on the inevitability of entitlement reform and on what Republicans have to do if they want to anchor a decisive, healthy, and lasting shift toward--dare I say it?--sustainable government. All worth a read.
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Comments:
"Were I in the shoes of Michael Steele, I would buy up billboard space"...Paul Rahe may be a history professor, but he seems to understand *marketing* better than the people who are now running the Republican party and the various Republican campaign organizations. I get about 5 pounds of political direct mail a week, and almost all of it, in terms of its ability to motivate and to convince, is just plain awful. I will be sad if the United States fails due to a lack of professional marketing talent in places where it really matters, but it could happen.
Also, I just put up a post on the topic of "Ambition in Goethe's Faust," which may seem a bit esoteric under the circumstances, but which I believe is highly relevant.
The stimulus bill, cap-and-trade, healthcare reform: with these Barack Obama, Rahm Emanuel, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid have brought home to the American people, as never before, the tyrannical propensities inherent in the progressive impulse.
So I'm curious, Erin. Do you agree with this statement? Or would you concede that it is the slightest bit "inaccurate and loaded," to quote another of your blog posts?
Yup, Peter, it's a bit loaded. So is your comment.
Nevertheless, for what it's worth, there is strong scholarship backing Rahe's point about the tyrannical impulse at the heart of progressive thinking. For a general overview, see Richard Ellis' The Dark Side of the Left: Illiberal Egalitarianism in America. For a more particular one having to do with progressive education, see Diane Ravitch's remarkable Left Back: A Century of Failed School Reforms. Rahe, for his part, has written several books on the subject of when and how democracy begets tyranny, most recently Soft Despotism, Democracy's Drift: Montesquieu, Rousseau, Tocqueville, and the Modern Prospect (Yale, 2009). So I think he's earned the right to make his claims.
A comment on the post below this one nentioned Aldoux Huxley. Here's a relevant excerpt from his novel Ape and Essence:
In the field of politics the equivalent of a theorem is a perfectly disciplined army; of a sonnet or picture, a police state under a dictatorship. The Marxist calls himself scientific and to this claim the Fascist adds another: he is the poet–the scientific poet–of a new mythology. Both are justified in their pretensions; for each applies to human situations the procedures which have proved effective in the laboratory and the ivory tower. They simplify, they abstract, they eliminate all that, for their purposes, is irrelevant and ignore whatever they choose to regard an inessential; they impose a style, they compel the facts to verify a favorite hypothesis, they consign to the waste paper basket all that, to their mind, falls short of perfection…the dream of Order begets tyranny, the dream of Beauty, monsters and violence.”
David,
Thanks for the interesting quote. The question, for me, is whether drawing implicit or explicit comparisons between progressives and Marxists or conservatives and fascists is particularly useful in the current political conjuncture.
Whether you agree with the outcome or not, the healthcare bill is anything but a "dream of Order": it is a messy behemoth, the result of compromise and political wrangling (albeit mostly within the Democratic party). But it's important to note what it *isn't*. It isn't single payer, but rather a restructuring of the private insurance industry. Perhaps you and Erin are right that this restructuring is misguided. Perhaps *any* government attempt to regulate healthcare is a bad idea. Perhaps tort reform and deregulation are the solution. I have no idea. But let's at least be clear about what we're dealing with.
The other issue raised by Erin is the question of process. It is true that healthcare is unpopular in the polls. But we live in a *representative* democracy, with regular elections, so let's see what happens in November. And yes, it should have been more bipartisan, though there is plenty of blame to go around on that count. What really worries me, in the end, is the increasingly partisan tone on both sides, the temptation to preach to the choir, the cheap caricatures of one's political enemies, and so on.
A year and a half ago, progressives were talking about a political realignment to the left. Now we're hearing about a realignment in the opposite direction. Only time will tell, but I wish that we could start looking for common ground, rather than trying to figure which way the zeitgeist is blowing.
PeterS..."the healthcare bill is anything but a "dream of Order": it is a messy behemoth"
Indeed it is (nice phrase), and I think excessive centralization *always* tends to create "messy behemoths" in implementation. This is because the less you count on autonomous individual decision-making, the more you need to create bureaucratic policies.
To take a business rather than political example...until a few years ago, GM had a policy specifying how much could be spent on the stamping dies for any new car model (as a % of the price of the car). This is insane: obviously, the cost of these dies needs to be controlled, like other investments & expenses in the model, but these decisions should be delegated to a product line executive who has P&L responsibility *and accountability*, rather than controlled on some overall corporate level. When you centralize excessively, though, you wind up with a policy guide with about as many pages as the healthcare bill.
David,
That's a very interesting point about the "messiness" of centralized administration. I'm sure tort reform and intelligent deregulation would bring down average costs, but expanding coverage, particularly to those with pre-existing conditions, requires some kind of government intervention, either in the form of subsidies or a mandate. My sense is that the GOP has been playing a bit of a shell game with their notion of some kind of "universal access" that won't cost the taxpayer a cent (except, of course, through the redistribution of tax burden through "tax incentives" and the subsidies necessary for high risk pools).
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