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May 24, 2010 [feather]
Corrupting climate science

Der Spiegel tells the story of how political machination--from left and right--has warped climate science into a mockery of dispassionate knowledge creation. Any analysis of the climate debate that apportions blame by pointing fingers solely at the right or at the left is part of the problem. Any defense of climate scientists that rests on facile evocations of academic freedom is part of the problem. We need to see this fiasco for the massive global clusterfuck that it is, recognize its implications--not just for how we understand climate change, but also for the credibility of scientific research across the board--and take action on at least two fronts.

One, we need to start from scratch with climate research, and suspend major policy and spending initiatives until reasoned, reliable data are available. Then we might be able to have an actual debate grounded in actual logic and measured argument, and we might be able to end the current pattern of panicked and self-serving action based on skewed agenda-driven claims.

Two, we need to read the climate science fiasco as a sign of how badly academic peer review has been broken--and to rethink, from the ground up, whether and how academia can repair its integrity. If it can't or won't, we no longer have a justification for academic freedom. And if we don't have that, higher education and academic research as we know it (or as we like to think we know it) will simply cease to be. This last is not a prediction, but a description of a process that is already in motion.

posted on May 24, 2010 6:56 AM




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Comments:

From the article:

"on the other a powerful lobby of industrial associations determined to trivialize the dangers of global warming. This latter group is supported by the conservative wing of the American political spectrum, conspiracy theorists as well as critical scientists."

I've followed global warming for more than ten years. I posted a chart of temperatures for Atlanta and Newnan, Georgia from 1900 to 2000 on the wall in my office. I never had anyone explain why the trend line in Newnan went down while Atlanta went up (hint...urban heat island effects),

I've followed the Watts Up With That website analysis of the US temprature recording stations. One of the closest stations to me, Gainesville, Ga, has the sensor located within six feet of a residential driveway. I'm certain the homeowner never parks the family CO2 emitter close enough to affect the readings.

And now Der Speigal wants people to believe conseratives and special interests are part of the problem. In the words of J Books (John Wayne) in The Shootist, "Well, Pardon the hell out of me!".

Not original, but to the point. There comes a time when one side of an argument is shown to be mostly correct and one side to be mostly wrong. That time haws arrived.

Regards,

Johnny Johns

Posted by: John Johns at May 24, 2010 10:32 AM



In addition to the problems with bias and data distortion, it would be nice as a general matter to see a little more humility from people who are doing quantitative modeling of complex phenomena...whether the phenomena in question involve climate change or mortgage-backed securities.

Posted by: david foster at May 24, 2010 11:22 AM



There are many people to blame here (all the most important ones being on the left), but from my point of view the true center of all evil in this matter lies with the scientific journals.

No paper should even be considered for publication, no paper should even be sent to referees, unless all the data it is based on is in the public domain, and all the computer code used to analyze that data is in the public domain. "Proprietary" code used to analyze "proprietary" data should only reside in "proprietary" papers and should never be published.

Of course, availability of data and code, although necessary, is not sufficient. There must be some reason to trust the data. Also, the code must be clear enough so that the reviewer can judge that it makes sense -- so that even Harry can understand it. In particular, if the code processes the data by making a huge number of "adjustments", and if those adjustments are so crucial that they completely affect the reported outcomes, then the validity of those adjustments must be a central part of the paper and a central part of what the referee is judging.

Posted by: LTEC at May 26, 2010 10:17 AM



The Spiegel article's even handedness is misplaced, IMO.

First, if you've followed Steve McIntyre's Climate Audit blog and/or read The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and the Corruption of Science, there must be no doubt in your mind that the science of global warming is not settled.

Second, there is no excuse — none whatsoever — for scientists to react to political pressure, either from the right or left, as der Spiegel apologetically implies those honest souls, victims all, did . . .

What, I ask you, is the purpose of tenure if not to insulate academics from precisely the kinds of pressures that der Spiegel alledges forced these "victim scientists" into caving in?

Posted by: Minerva at May 26, 2010 8:48 PM



Minerva..I'm not sure that employment security, in the form of tenure or otherwise, usually has the expected effects on courage to stand up against the tide. In the disastrous shuttle launch decisions, for example, many of those involved were surely Federal employees with Civil Service protections.

The desire to avoid being exiled to professional outer darkness, even if one gets to keep one's job, seems to be very strong in most people. And it's also possible that careers offering high employment security tend to attract many people for whom security is extraordinarily important--who will probably not be those most likely to take an unpopoular stand.

Posted by: david foster at May 27, 2010 4:59 PM